THERE IS a school of thought, championed by Nigel Lawson among others, that argues against anticipating the effects of climate change. Pupils of this school, sceptical of much of the science used to demonstrate the effects and causes of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, suggest waiting to see how these alter the climate, and then reacting accordingly.
It is hard to trace a link between the origins of a tropical storm and climate change, and still harder to track that back to human activity. None the less, the prevalence and severity of recent hurricanes and cyclones, coinciding with the highest level of carbon dioxide molecules in the air for 650,000 years, is grounds for precautionary action. Coincidence might be bad science, but reputable scientists treat it as an early sign that something deserves investigation, pending the results of which it would be foolish to carry on behaving as if there were no consequences.
Whatever the causes of Cyclone Nargis two weeks ago, the earthquake in Sichuan cannot be attributed to climate change. Yet, together, they undermine the “wait-see-react” approach. Both struck in poor, remote areas, and this tends to be the way of disasters. Tropical coastlines and mountainous earthquake zones are often very inaccessible and undeveloped. The lines of communication that do exist are often rendered unusable by the earthquake or flood. All this suggests that a policy based solely on an ability to react quickly to disasters will have a high human cost. Besides which, there are too many natural, unpreventable disasters to risk adding to their number by careless use of the planet’s resources.
There is no need of scientific enquiry to discover the real cause of the disaster in Burma, however. Nargis might have killed tens of thousands in the Irrawaddy delta. General Than Shwe and his fellow members of the ruling junta are threatening the lives of hundreds of thousands by their inactivity and obstruction of international aid efforts. Once again, the myth of absolute power as a means of more efficient government is exposed, as the military rulers are unable to deliver relief to the cyclone victims, despite having one of the largest armies in south-east Asia at their command.
By contrast, the Chinese Prime Minister, Wen Jiabao, flew to Sichuan early in the week to promise extensive help. Thousands of troops have been deployed in the stricken region, and large earth-moving vehicles are on hand to help release those trapped in the rubble. All is not perfect: the Chinese still baulk at allowing in overseas personnel, but rescue efforts are more advanced in less than a week than they are in Burma after a fortnight. The preservation of life must be the primary aim of all governments, regardless of creed or ideology. The lesson of history might show otherwise, but it is still a shock to see the Burmese leaders acting as though the cyclone victims were dispensable. It is a warning to anyone who is tempted to regard the global damage from climate change as something to be repaired at an indeterminate point in the future. |
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